April 2025

The possibility of Donald Trump visiting Central Asia, in particular Uzbekistan, remains relevant. Although not officially announced, the current diplomatic situation and structural factors contribute to the emergence of such a visit.

From April 21 to 23, 2025, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Serik Zhumangarin, paid an official visit to Kabul, the capital of the Taliban government, where he held a meeting with the Deputy Head of the Afghan Government, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar. As a result of the visit, approximately 20 agreements were signed with a total value of $140 million, marking a significant step in the development of bilateral relations between the two countries.

A total of $313 million of Gulnara Karimova's funds frozen in Switzerland has been returned to the people of Uzbekistan. Of this amount, $95 million was transferred to the Trust Fund established jointly by the governments of Uzbekistan and Switzerland. From these funds, $87 million has been allocated equally between Uzbekistan’s healthcare and education sectors. The remaining funds are still being held in Swiss bank accounts under the supervision of the Swiss government.

Recently, not only Uzbekistan but many other countries, particularly the United States, have started paying more attention to the economic risks and threats posed by China. In Uzbekistan's media and among some civil society activists, opinions are increasingly voiced openly about China being a threat not only economically but also geopolitically. Here, we will examine both the risks and the opportunities that China presents to Uzbekistan.

International relations are currently being shaped by several changes presenting a challenge for policymakers to understand and take measures. The development of world politics is going beyond stability and evolving more chaotically, especially with the return of the Trump administration to the Oval Office. Some changes include the shift of technology to non-traditional centers, the ever-rising gap between ultra-right and ultra-left parties, and the elite struggle, championed by great powers like the US and Russia. 

At the end of 2024, after the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, the situation changed dramatically. Turkey is trying to replace Iran’s role in Syria and is seeking to establish military bases in the country. According to a joint defense agreement with Syria, Palmyra, Hama, and the T4 airbase were set to be handed over to Turkey. In recent weeks, these military bases have been inspected by Turkish specialists.

The recent visit of American diplomats to Kabul may signal the first cautious steps towards a possible normalization of relations between the United States and the Taliban movement.