The official invitation of Shavkat Mirziyoyev to Donald Trump and the second confirmation of this invitation by high-level diplomatic delegations of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, along with a positive response from the US side, is considered an important diplomatic signal. Statement by U.S. Ambassador to Uzbekistan Jonathan Henick - that the White House "is seriously considering" this proposal - increases the likelihood of the visit's realization.

Such proposals indicate a transition from the "classical" stage of bilateral relations to the "strategic" stage. The fact that the US does not reject or leave such diplomatic proposals unanswered - especially in strategically important regions - is considered a "pragmatic" consistency of US foreign policy.

The Trump administration's foreign trade policy for 2025 introduces a 10% global duty rate, which is shifting the US trade strategy towards a protectionist direction. However, the fact that the volume of trade with Uzbekistan in 2024 exceeded $881 million indicates that the USA is one of the second most active trading partners in Central Asia. This economic growth - in terms of attracting US investment to Uzbekistan and assessing the strategic location for foreign investors - also creates an important economic background for the visit.

The memorandum signed between Uzbekistan and the USA in September 2024 in the field of rare earth elements (metals) and strategic minerals corresponds to the US's efforts to find suppliers not directly related to China. The issue of "supply chain security," which has become an important factor in US foreign policy, positions Uzbekistan as a new strategic source.

The "C5+1" format, which expanded its scope in 2023-2024, could also become a real political tool for the Trump administration. Ambassador Henick's statement that "today is the most opportune time" means that the White House is likely to turn C5+1 into a new "multilateral" platform under Trump. Such a visit could also take place within the framework of the "C5+1" summit. Even if the visit takes place within the framework of the C5+1 format, there is a high probability that it will be held in Uzbekistan, and this could become an important diplomatic achievement for our country and a new stage of regional cooperation.

The at least symbolic significance of Trump's visit to Uzbekistan is clearly visible in comparison with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Kazakhstan is the richest and most resource-rich country in the region (mainly oil and gas), with a population of -20 million. It also strives for leadership in regional security; for example, it cooperates within the framework of the CIS and SCO. The economies of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are small, their GDP in 2024 is -$35.8 billion and -$12 billion, respectively, and their population is around 7-11 million. These countries are more economically dependent on Russia and China, therefore the USA has limited strategic ties with these countries. Turkmenistan is economically strong due to natural gas reserves ($90.9 billion GDP), but it does not pursue an open policy and has limited international relations.

In this regard, Uzbekistan also has a unique role: it is one of the countries in Central Asia with not only the largest population, but also the largest freedom of the press and the most open market system for foreign investment. Uzbekistan is an active member of the C5+1 format (USA and five Central Asian countries). These diplomatic actions make Uzbekistan a more positive partner for the US compared to other teammates.

Central Asia is seen as a zone of influence of Russia and China. Uzbekistan, on the other hand, is practically testing the "third way" model of balanced foreign policy between these two countries. For the US, especially for the Trump administration, Uzbekistan - as a "neutral, but open" state - can play a platform role in mitigating the influence of China and Russia. Therefore, Trump's visit will be not only a symbolic action, but also a strategic signal.

Trump's focus is currently on rebuilding US domestic economic policy, particularly reducing inflation, protecting industry, and strengthening security. The visit to Central Asia is not the first in his domestic political agenda, but in terms of foreign policy PR, it is considered a convenient moment for him - especially if this visit is turned into a means of demonstrating the strong global position of the USA.

Henick's call for the repatriation of citizens who illegally entered the US from Uzbekistan is a sensitive and potentially tense aspect of bilateral diplomatic talks.

Donald Trump's visit to Uzbekistan is interpreted not as a focus on one country, but as an attempt to redefine the geopolitical weight of Central Asia in the context of US foreign policy. Diplomatic proposals, strategic economic interests, and security discussions increase the likelihood of this visit to a real level. Also, if Donald Trump makes an official visit, he will go down in history as the first US president to visit Central Asia. This is a great achievement for him not only politically, but also symbolically.

Despite this, Trump's domestic political priorities, migration, and human rights issues still hold the visit at an intermediate strategic level. However, if Trump makes a visit, it could be an opportunity for Uzbekistan to strengthen its geopolitical position in the region, and for the US - to open a new diplomatic front in the China-Russia sphere of influence.

Nodirbek Egamberdiyev

Political analyst

#C5+1

Donald Trump's visit to Uzbekistan: the truth behind strategic interests and diplomatic signals