Politics

According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), more than 256,000 people returned from Iran to Afghanistan in June alone. Moreover, this number is expected to increase further in July. Large-scale deportations could severely damage Afghanistan’s economy and social structure.

In the modern era, nationalist sentiment in India has significantly intensified. In particular, representatives of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which retained power in the April–May 2024 elections, are actively contributing to the further strengthening of this nationalist mood. On one hand, the rise of this nationalist policy is bringing India closer to states that are implementing similar systems — such as the United States, many European countries, and Israel — thereby fostering stronger alliances. 

On June 13 of this year, Israel launched a military operation called "Rising Lion" against Iran, marking the beginning of escalated tensions between the two nations in the Middle East. The subsequent involvement of the United States further exacerbated the already complex situation.

After the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan, NATO and U.S. forces withdrew from the country. Following their departure, Central Asian neighbors, as well as Iran, China, and Russia, began seeking closer engagement with Afghanistan. Uzbekistan’s former ambassador to the U.S. and head of the International Institute for Central Asia in Tashkent, Javlon Vakhabov, described Uzbekistan's rapprochement with Afghanistan as “stability.” This analysis was published by Oilprice.com.

On June 9–10, Eric Meyer, a senior official from the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs, will be in Uzbekistan. This was reported by the press service of the U.S. Embassy in Uzbekistan.

Since the start of the Russia–Ukraine war, several European Union countries have shown a significantly increased interest in Central Asia, particularly Uzbekistan. This shift signals a change in the region’s geopolitical balance as well as a new direction in the EU’s foreign policy strategy.

The region of Jammu and Kashmir has once again become the epicenter of conflict between India and Pakistan. The latest escalation was triggered by a terrorist attack carried out on April 22, 2025 in the Pahalgam district. The armed assault resulted in the deaths of 26 individuals, including 25 Indian citizens and one Nepalese national. Such incidents have significantly heightened tensions in the region and raised concerns within the international community.

The possibility of Donald Trump visiting Central Asia, in particular Uzbekistan, remains relevant. Although not officially announced, the current diplomatic situation and structural factors contribute to the emergence of such a visit.

International relations are currently being shaped by several changes presenting a challenge for policymakers to understand and take measures. The development of world politics is going beyond stability and evolving more chaotically, especially with the return of the Trump administration to the Oval Office. Some changes include the shift of technology to non-traditional centers, the ever-rising gap between ultra-right and ultra-left parties, and the elite struggle, championed by great powers like the US and Russia. 

At the end of 2024, after the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, the situation changed dramatically. Turkey is trying to replace Iran’s role in Syria and is seeking to establish military bases in the country. According to a joint defense agreement with Syria, Palmyra, Hama, and the T4 airbase were set to be handed over to Turkey. In recent weeks, these military bases have been inspected by Turkish specialists.

The recent visit of American diplomats to Kabul may signal the first cautious steps towards a possible normalization of relations between the United States and the Taliban movement.

The recent visit of American diplomats to Kabul may signal the first cautious steps towards a possible normalization of relations between the United States and the Taliban movement.