Netanyahu’s bloc leads in Israel election, but...

According to The Times of Israel on October 28, after 66.2% of ballot boxes had been counted, Netanyahu’s bloc was projected to win 56 seats, while the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot was projected to secure 48. Arab parties were projected to hold 16 seats. 

The preliminary seat distribution changed several times as counting progressed. At the stage when 32.5% of ballot boxes had been counted, Netanyahu’s bloc was projected to win 59 seats and the opposition 46. Subsequent updates reduced the projected number of seats for Netanyahu’s bloc. 

Israel’s Knesset has 120 seats. A government needs the support of at least 61 lawmakers to secure a parliamentary majority. Therefore, leading in the preliminary count does not mean Netanyahu’s bloc can form a government on its own.

Preliminary figures showed the Reservists, People of Israel and Charedi Public parties below the 3.25% electoral threshold. Ballots cast by military personnel and other voters using double envelopes are to be counted later and could affect the final distribution of seats. 

The final election outcome and the composition of a potential governing majority remain uncertain. Further counting and coalition negotiations will be crucial.