Oil prices above $100 will affect Central Asian countries differently

Global oil prices entered the new week at elevated levels, with Brent crude trading above $100 a barrel on September 14. Reuters reported that Brent rose as high as $107.61 per barrel on Monday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude traded around $102.53. The rise has been driven by growing concerns over global supply disruptions amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure.

For Kazakhstan, higher oil prices could provide an economic boost. The country is one of Central Asia’s largest oil producers, and crude exports are an important source of foreign-exchange earnings and government revenue. Kazakhstan’s 2026 budget is based on an oil price of $60 per barrel. If Brent remains above $100 for an extended period, the higher price could therefore increase export revenues and provide additional fiscal income.

Importers face higher costs

The picture is different for countries that depend more heavily on imported oil and petroleum products. Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan can face higher import bills when global oil prices rise. More expensive fuel can increase transportation and logistics costs, eventually putting pressure on the prices of goods and services.

The International Monetary Fund warned in its regional outlook that higher commodity prices could slow the decline in inflation across Central Asia and the Caucasus in 2026. For oil-importing economies, higher energy prices create a negative terms-of-trade shock and can weigh on economic activity.

Dependence on imported fuel is particularly important for some countries in the region. Tajikistan, for example, imported 599,500 tonnes of petroleum products during the first half of 2026, with 91.1% of the total coming from Russia.

The impact of oil prices above $100 is therefore unlikely to be uniform across Central Asia. Oil exporters such as Kazakhstan could benefit from stronger export revenues, while fuel-importing economies may face higher energy and transportation costs. If elevated prices persist, the main challenge for importers will be preventing higher fuel costs from feeding into broader inflation.