China is both a risk and an opportunity for Uzbekistan

Opportunities:

• China is one of the world's largest markets. Trading with China offers significant economic benefits for any country. China is one of Uzbekistan’s major trading partners (in 2024, the trade turnover with China surpassed that with Russia). If Uzbekistan fully develops its "green energy" system, China could become a major market for our electricity exports.

• Through the "Belt and Road Initiative," China is helping many countries build roads, ports, and railways. Major infrastructure such as the Angren-Pap railway line and oil and gas projects are being constructed with Chinese investments.

• Significant revenues can be earned from the transit of Chinese goods. However, it is crucial to prepare a sufficiently skilled workforce to handle this opportunity.

• China offers cutting-edge technologies in fields such as artificial intelligence, 5G, and more. Having multiple alternatives to Western technologies broadens our options. It is even possible to develop national programs in cooperation with China, leveraging existing infrastructure like the IT-Park system.

• Chinese companies (such as Huawei) are active in telecommunications, energy, and transport sectors. This presents a major opportunity for the modernization of Uzbekistan's industrial base.

Risks:

• Excessive borrowing from China can create economic dependency (often referred to as "debt-trap diplomacy"). If Chinese investments grow unchecked, Uzbekistan’s economy could become overly dependent on China. Large infrastructure-related loans might later cause financial difficulties, as seen in the case of Sri Lanka.

• Growing Chinese investments could also lead to increased geopolitical pressure. China may use its economic influence to advance political interests. Maintaining a balance between China, the West, Russia, Turkey, and Arab states will be crucial — but extremely challenging. Uzbekistan is managing it well so far, but sustaining this balance requires raising political awareness among the public and securing widespread support.

• Issues like data security and industrial espionage remain significant concerns in technological cooperation with China. The United States has had bitter experiences in this regard. Nevertheless, by carefully applying China's experience, it is possible to strengthen and develop our own economy.

What should Uzbekistan do?

• First, risks are inevitable. However, they can be managed wisely. Investments and loans should only be accepted for economically viable and profitable projects. Legislative measures should be taken to set strict limits on government debt.

• Second, Uzbekistan must always prioritize its own interests during economic negotiations. Strategic assets such as ports and major factories must be protected carefully.

• Third, instead of merely importing finished goods, Uzbekistan should seek to acquire technology and know-how. Local workforce training and independent economic development should be emphasized.

• Fourth, Uzbekistan should not only attract Chinese investments but also invest in China’s economy, similarly to how Japan and South Korea operate by establishing joint ventures involving Uzbek capital.

Farhod Karimov 

Expert on Middle Eastern and Global Politics, Political Scientist