Tashkent vs. Astana: The race for regional aviation dominance heats up

At the Tashkent International Investment Forum, "Uzbekistan Airports" JSC and Saudi Arabia's Vision International Investment signed a 35-year public-private partnership (PPP) agreement to build and operate the New Tashkent International Airport.

The project will be carried out between 2026 and 2030 in the Urtachirchik and Kuyichirchik districts of Tashkent Region, covering 1,310 hectares — roughly 13.1 square kilometers, nearly matching the size of London's Heathrow Airport (12.1–12.3 sq km). The first phase alone is expected to draw around $3 billion in foreign investment.

The new terminal will be four times larger than the current one, initially handling 20 million passengers a year, with capacity eventually rising to 46 million. For comparison: Heathrow served roughly 84 million passengers in 2024 — meaning "New Tashkent" is aiming, over the long term, to approach that scale.

More than 40 jet bridges, over 160 aircraft parking stands, two runways, and more than 30 takeoff-and-landing operations per hour round out the project's technical specs. Advanced navigation and weather systems will allow all aircraft types to operate in any weather conditions.

So what's the problem?

Physical infrastructure — the building, the land, the terminal — is only part of what it takes to become an aviation hub. Uzbekistan still has to meet a number of other requirements to earn that status.

Neighboring Kazakhstan is Uzbekistan's main rival here — both countries are aiming to become the region's gateway. For now, Kazakhstan holds the lead: its airports serve nearly twice as many passengers as Uzbekistan Airways, and the country retains its position as the region's primary air cargo gateway.

According to Uzbekistan Airports, the gap largely comes down to different starting points, both in infrastructure and history. Kazakhstan's aviation system took shape much earlier and adapted to handle large cargo flows, while Uzbekistan has only in recent years accelerated growth through state investment.

What the numbers show?

In 2025, Kazakh airlines carried 15 million passengers, the country's airports served 32 million people, and processed 173,000 tons of cargo. Uzbekistan, by comparison, carried around 10 million passengers, its airlines served 15.5 million people, and air cargo volume reached 98,000 tons.

According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), air cargo volumes in Central Asia have more than doubled over the past five years. In 2024, roughly 67% of all air cargo entering the region went through Kazakhstan.

Between 2019 and 2024, air cargo volume grew 149% in Kazakhstan and 182% in Uzbekistan.
In other words, while Uzbekistan trails in overall volume, it's outpacing its rival in growth rate.

Transit is the deciding factor

Regional aviation-hub status also depends on the reach of a country's international route network — and that's where the strategic weight of the New Tashkent project comes in. The airport needs to do more than meet current demand; it has to shape future passenger and cargo flows.

Uzbekistan Airways remains the only airline in Central Asia currently operating direct flights to the United States.

Kazakhstan's Air Astana is working to establish direct service between Kazakhstan and the US. On July 22, 2026, the airline filed an application with the US Department of Transportation (DOT) for authority to operate the route. However, Boeing delivery delays, scheduling complications, and the fact that Kazakhstan has not yet received FAA Category 1 safety status are slowing the project down. Even so, Air Astana is targeting a spring-summer 2027 launch for the route.

This situation illustrates that competition in Central Asia's aviation market isn't limited to airports. Becoming an aviation hub requires more than a new terminal and runways — it demands a broader network of long-haul international routes, a stronger airline fleet, and a functioning transit model.

An opportunity for Uzbekistan, a warning sign for Kazakhstan

That's why judging the New Tashkent airport purely as a large infrastructure project falls short. Its real impact won't come from how many passengers it can handle, but from how efficiently that capacity actually gets used.

If the new airport becomes an attractive transit point for international carriers — able to connect passengers between Central Asia, South Asia, the Middle East and beyond — its economic significance will extend well beyond terminal capacity.

To get there, Uzbekistan needs to tackle several things at once: expand its international route network, streamline transit procedures, build out cargo infrastructure, and boost the competitiveness of its national carriers.

For Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan's rapid growth is a signal that its current lead in the region won't hold automatically. Kazakhstan's own official statements about needing to move faster are evidence that the competition is intensifying.

Is a big footprint enough to become an aviation hub?

New Tashkent's 1,310-hectare footprint and future capacity for 46 million passengers reflect the scale of Uzbekistan's ambitions in aviation.

But an aviation hub isn't just a large building. It's the sum of passenger traffic, cargo volume, international route geography, strong airlines, and an efficient transit system.

If all these pieces fall into place, the 1,310-hectare airport could become the infrastructure that pushes Uzbekistan's standing forward on Central Asia's aviation map.