In Afghanistan, Abandoned by NATO and the U.S., Uzbekistan Implements a New Strategy

After the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan, NATO and U.S. forces withdrew from the country. Following their departure, Central Asian neighbors, as well as Iran, China, and Russia, began seeking closer engagement with Afghanistan. Uzbekistan’s former ambassador to the U.S. and head of the International Institute for Central Asia in Tashkent, Javlon Vakhabov, described Uzbekistan's rapprochement with Afghanistan as “stability.” This analysis was published by Oilprice.com.

NATO va AQSh tark etgan Afgʻonistonda Oʻzbekiston yangi strategiyani amalga oshirmoqda

According to Vakhobov, Uzbekistan prefers a pragmatic approach over isolating Afghanistan; this policy balances humanitarian assistance with regional security.

 

Uzbekistan’s dialogue with the Taliban began long before NATO’s withdrawal from Afghanistan.

 

In 1997, the late President Islam Karimov proposed the "6+2" format on Afghanistan. This initiative recognized that peace must be achieved through dialogue and political agreement, not military force. However, the group failed to bring the Taliban and the Afghan Northern Alliance to the negotiating table.

 

Central Asia’s resources spark a new global scramble.

 

In March 2018, Uzbekistan hosted the Tashkent Conference, calling for direct, unconditional peace talks between the Taliban and the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. Unfortunately, the Taliban declared they would only negotiate with the “foreign occupying force” of the United States and insisted that foreign troops must leave before any talks could begin.

 

Tashkent has continuously supported engagement with the Taliban-run government. After the fall of Kabul in August 2021, Uzbekistan led efforts to release the $9 billion in Afghan state assets frozen by the U.S. and European authorities.

 

Central Asia is a region of water stress, with Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan falling into the “severe” category. The construction of the Qosh Tepa Canal posed a potential 15–20% reduction in Amu Darya water flow—catastrophic for agriculture in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. (Agriculture accounts for ~25% of Uzbekistan’s GDP and employs ~26% of its labor force.)

 

In April 2025, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan reached an agreement to jointly manage water resources in the Amu Darya basin.

 

While Uzbekistan has not formally recognized the Taliban government, this water cooperation demonstrates the increasing institutionalization of bilateral relations. Tashkent’s priorities encompass not only water but also addressing the threat from approximately 20 terrorist groups reportedly sheltering in Afghanistan.

 

To manage water-related challenges peacefully, a key step would be to integrate Afghanistan into the 1992 Almaty Agreement, which governs Soviet-era water allocations among Central Asian republics. By joining the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination (ICWC), Afghanistan would become part of the solution, learn regional “rules of the road,” and help officials better understand Taliban leaders’ personalities, motivations, and priorities.

 

Other initiatives include:

  • Termez Free Economic Zone: Offers two-week visas for Afghan nationals, with customs, hotel, storage, and capacity for 100,000 trucks and 900,000 tons of goods annually.
  • Trans-Afghan Railway: A $7 billion, 765 km rail link to Pakistani ports, expected to reduce transport costs by 30–40%. Uzbekistan may also study extending the line from Hairatan to Herat, enabling trade with Iran and Turkmenistan.
  • Surkhan–Puli Khumri Power Line: A 1,000 MW line supporting electrification of Afghan transport and potentially connecting to the CASA‑1000 project with Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Pakistan. Currently, Uzbekistan supplies about 60% of Afghanistan’s electricity.

 

Once operational, electricity exports to Afghanistan would rise by 70%, delivering up to 24 million kWh per day (about 6 billion kWh annually). The project spans 245.6 km—45 km in Uzbekistan (already completed) and 200.6 km in Afghanistan. This line will boost power availability and electrify the Hairatan–Mazar-i-Sharif railway, replacing diesel with cleaner electric locomotives and cutting transport costs.

 

In 2024, trade between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan reached $1.1 billion, predominantly Uzbek exports. Tashkent views Afghanistan not as a threat, but as a regional bridge.

 

Though terrorism remains a concern, intelligence cooperation between the Taliban and U.S. against Al-Qaeda and IS‑K is contributing to stabilisation efforts.

 

Greater trade may not alter extremist ideologies, but economic opportunity can impede recruitment. Funding Afghan madrassas could help detoxify the education system. If the Taliban prioritize public welfare and business, they can gain legitimacy. While the U.S. may disapprove, after two decades of turmoil largely linked to foreign intervention, Washington should encourage any action that helps Afghanistan generate income outside of poppy cultivation.

 

External interference has often caused tragedy in Afghanistan. However, if Tashkent can engage with moderate and outward-looking Taliban elements in Kabul, it might shift power away from harder factions in Kandahar.

 

Uzbekistan may play a crucial role in Central Asia’s critical mineral industry, helping to secure supply chains for the U.S. The U.S. relies entirely on imports for 12 of its 50 critical minerals, and more than 50% for another 32. Central Asia and Afghanistan are resource-rich but face transport and water constraints. New Chinese technologies might triple production capacity while reducing pollution—but this places China in a dominant position, potentially problematic for Washington.

 

Even partial completion of the Trans-Afghan railway could enable mineral shipments from Afghanistan to processing centers in Central Asia, Russia, or China. Yet, Washington and Brussels need to invest significantly to prevent these resources from falling into the hands of Russia or China.

 

As a double landlocked country, Uzbekistan sees Afghanistan connectivity as a route to South Asia via Pakistan’s Karachi and Gwadar ports. Meanwhile, trade with Iran via Bandar Abbas/Chabahar and access to the North-South Corridor thematizes a “Plan B” if the Afghan route faces challenges.

 

Over the past decade, Tashkent has aimed to turn Central Asia into a “safe neighborhood.” Its priorities—peaceful border resolution and broad-based governance in Kabul—align with Washington’s interests. But Central Asian states conceive regional security more broadly, encompassing diplomacy, economic development, and regular political ties with Russia, China, Iran, and Afghanistan.

 

In April 2025, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev expressed readiness to work with the EU and other international partners to help Afghanistan “overcome the current crisis,” a move welcomed by the Taliban. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President António Costa visited Uzbekistan, committing to deepen ties with Central Asia—through FDI, critical minerals access, educational exchanges, and more. European partner engagement should support Afghanistan as a productive, secure member of the region, rather than a source of terrorism or narcotics.

Similar news

Do Human Rights in Uzbekistan No Longer Matter to Europe?

Do Human Rights in Uzbekistan No Longer Matter to Europe?

Since the start of the Russia–Ukraine war, several European Union countries have shown a significantly increased interest in Central Asia, particularly Uzbekistan. This shift signals a change in the region’s geopolitical balance as well as a new direction in the EU’s foreign policy strategy.

Politics

05.06.2025, 16:22

Shavkat Mirziyoyev va Donald Tramp

Donald Trump's visit to Uzbekistan: the truth behind strategic interests and diplomatic signals

The possibility of Donald Trump visiting Central Asia, in particular Uzbekistan, remains relevant. Although not officially announced, the current diplomatic situation and structural factors contribute to the emergence of such a visit.

Politics

29.04.2025, 17:39

Jahon banki yana Oʻzbekistonga imtiyozli kredit ajratdi

World Bank Allocates Another Concessional Loan to Uzbekistan

The World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors has approved a concessional loan of $35 million to improve the use of geospatial data in Uzbekistan.

Economy

21.05.2025, 09:51

On Donald Trump's plans in the Middle East (during his visit to the Persian Gulf countries)

US President Donald Trump's May tour of the Gulf states promises to be a turning point, with "economic diplomacy" taking center stage and, instead of official declarations, dominating large-scale investment and infrastructure projects. The focus is on the US project in the East, which aims to strengthen energy security, stimulate technological transformation, accelerate military cooperation and offer a "new life" to war-torn Gaza through the so-called "Gaza Riviera".

World

16.05.2025, 14:33

Xitoy va O'zbekiston

China is both a risk and an opportunity for Uzbekistan

Recently, not only Uzbekistan but many other countries, particularly the United States, have started paying more attention to the economic risks and threats posed by China. In Uzbekistan's media and among some civil society activists, opinions are increasingly voiced openly about China being a threat not only economically but also geopolitically. Here, we will examine both the risks and the opportunities that China presents to Uzbekistan.

Uzbekistan

28.04.2025, 16:39

Firʼavnning ajdarho bilan raqsi: Misrning Xitoy bilan harbiy hamkorligi

Dragon’s dance with Pharaoh

The United States has been the major military partner of several countries in the Middle for decades. However, Egypt is trying to make a strategic change towards diversifying its military and economic relations with new emerging powers, particularly with China. This trend clearly shows Egypt’s long-term ambitions and such a bold move comes with potential challenges that could shape Egypt’s geopolitical trajectory and future decisions. 

World

17.03.2025, 12:27

Latest news

AQShning Janubiy va Markaziy Osiyo boʻyicha byuroning katta masʼul xodimi Erik Mayer Oʻzbekistonga keladi

Eric Meyer, Senior Official of the U.S. Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs, to Visit Uzbekista

On June 9–10, Eric Meyer, a senior official from the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs, will be in Uzbekistan. This was reported by the press service of the U.S. Embassy in Uzbekistan.

Politics

09.06.2025, 13:53

Do Human Rights in Uzbekistan No Longer Matter to Europe?

Do Human Rights in Uzbekistan No Longer Matter to Europe?

Since the start of the Russia–Ukraine war, several European Union countries have shown a significantly increased interest in Central Asia, particularly Uzbekistan. This shift signals a change in the region’s geopolitical balance as well as a new direction in the EU’s foreign policy strategy.

Politics

05.06.2025, 16:22

Jahon banki yana Oʻzbekistonga imtiyozli kredit ajratdi

World Bank Allocates Another Concessional Loan to Uzbekistan

The World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors has approved a concessional loan of $35 million to improve the use of geospatial data in Uzbekistan.

Economy

21.05.2025, 09:51

Jahon banki Oʻzbekistonda elektr tarmoqlarini modernizatsiya qilish uchun 100 mln AQSh dollar kredit ajratdi

World Bank allocates $100 million loan to modernize Uzbekistan’s power grids

The World Bank has approved a $100 million loan to support a program aimed at integrating renewable energy sources into Uzbekistan’s distribution networks and improving the reliability of electricity supply in priority regions across the country.

Uzbekistan

19.05.2025, 14:30

Tojikistondan qaryib 27 kg narkotik modda olib kirilayotgan vaqtda ushlandi,

Nearly 27 kg of narcotic drugs seized at the Uzbekistan – Tajikistan border

Six individuals attempting to smuggle a total of 26.8 kg of narcotic substances from Tajikistan into Uzbekistan have been detained, according to the State Security Service (SSS).

Uzbekistan

19.05.2025, 11:09

Isroil Gʻazoga yana gumanitar yordam yetkazishga ruxsat berdi

Israel grants new permission for humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza

Today, May 19, the Israeli government announced it would once again allow humanitarian aid deliveries to the Gaza Strip. Observers have warned that without this assistance, the region faces an imminent threat of widespread famine.

World

19.05.2025, 10:42

On Donald Trump's plans in the Middle East (during his visit to the Persian Gulf countries)

US President Donald Trump's May tour of the Gulf states promises to be a turning point, with "economic diplomacy" taking center stage and, instead of official declarations, dominating large-scale investment and infrastructure projects. The focus is on the US project in the East, which aims to strengthen energy security, stimulate technological transformation, accelerate military cooperation and offer a "new life" to war-torn Gaza through the so-called "Gaza Riviera".

World

16.05.2025, 14:33

Мексикада судья йўқолган талабалар ҳақидаги далилларни йўқ қилишда айбланиб ҳибсга олинди

Judge arrested in Mexico for destroying evidence in missing students case

A new development has emerged in the case of 43 students who disappeared in Mexico in 2014: former judge Lambertina Galeana Marín has been arrested on suspicion of destroying evidence related to the incident, according to a report by the BBC.

World

16.05.2025, 13:50

Men shaxsan 15 may kuni Putinni Istanbulda kutaman — Zelenskiy

I will personally wait for Putin in Istanbul on May 15 — Zelensky

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that he is ready to hold direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Istanbul on May 15.

World

12.05.2025, 13:06

Tabibning oʻzi bemor ekan: Xonobod shahar sudi raisi jinoyat sodir etdi

The chairman of the Khanabad city court committed a crime

The Chairman of the Criminal Court of Khanabad city in Andijan region, Yu.E., has been held criminally liable for committing a crime, and his judicial powers have been terminated. This was reported by the Press Service of the Supreme Judicial Council.

Uzbekistan

12.05.2025, 12:43

Ўзбекистонда 130 та объект маданий мерос рўйхатига кириши мумкин

130 sites in Uzbekistan may be added to the Cultural heritage register

A proposal has been made to include 130 sites located in various regions of Uzbekistan — including the Cabinet of Ministers building on Independence Square in Tashkent — in the national list of cultural heritage sites.

Uzbekistan

12.05.2025, 10:43