Russia’s oil production has fallen by 940,000 barrels since January

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has cut its forecast for Russian oil production in 2026 by another 125,000 barrels per day to 8.7 million barrels per day. The revision comes as Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, including oil refineries, continue to disrupt the country’s energy sector.

Russia produced 8.36 million barrels of crude oil per day in August. That was 200,000 barrels per day below July and 940,000 barrels per day below the January level. Compared with August 2025, Russian oil production was also down by 695,000 barrels per day.

Refining capacity also faces pressure

Ukrainian forces have increasingly targeted Russian oil refineries, fuel facilities and other parts of the country’s energy infrastructure. Damage to these facilities can force individual plants to reduce or suspend operations, affecting Russia’s overall refining capacity.

According to the IEA, the attacks are also putting pressure on Russia’s exports of refined petroleum products. A prolonged reduction in refining capacity could create additional pressure on domestic fuel supplies, particularly when demand is high.

The impact extends beyond Russia’s energy companies. Oil remains a major source of export revenue and government income for Moscow. A sustained decline in crude production and refining could therefore affect both energy revenues and the wider Russian budget.

Reuters reported that a draft Russian government forecast expects the country’s oil production in 2026 to fall to its lowest level in 17 years. If that forecast materializes, it would underline the growing pressure on Russia’s oil industry from infrastructure disruptions and Ukrainian attacks.