Afghanistan on the Geopolitical Chessboard of the Middle East

Consequently, Afghanistan’s geographical and diplomatic position may once again acquire strategic significance as regional actors seek to counterbalance Iran's eastern influence. This rivalry can manifest through investments, trade routes, media, and humanitarian initiatives. At the same time, Afghanistan's neutrality and its internal policies play a crucial role - especially if external forces view it as a buffer zone or a strategic corridor within a broader regional struggle.

Relationship Built on Interests

Initially, Iran refrained from official contacts with the Taliban government, which came to power in Kabul in 2021. However, it was subsequently forced to move towards pragmatic engagement with Afghanistan on a number of issues - security, migration, water resources, and counter-terrorism.

Firstly, the weakening or elimination of Iranian proxy groups in Syria, Lebanon, and Palestine forced Iran to seek new strategic allies, including Afghanistan. Although Afghanistan does not possess the same strategic weight as Syria, it has the potential to supply volunteer military forces in the event of a new conflict with Israel. This is why Iran attempted to re-recruit Afghan Shiites, particularly fighters from the  “Fatemiyoun Brigade”. However, the Taliban firmly rejected this, stating that allowing third countries to conduct military operations and recruit fighters on its territory poses a threat to Afghanistan's sovereignty. On the other hand, rapprochement with Iran could be seen as an attempt by Kabul to achieve de facto recognition from one of the leading actors in the Middle East, which could play an important role in Afghanistan's foreign policy and diplomacy. The war that began on October 7, 2023, between Israel and Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip further accelerated geopolitical processes in the Middle East. Iran, positioning itself as the “shield of Islam” ,supported Hamas throughout the war. At the same time, Afghanistan expressed solidarity with Iran and supported the Palestinian people.

Secondly, Iran sought to strengthen economic cooperation with Afghanistan. It invested in infrastructure projects such as the Khaf-Herat railway and Chabahar Port. The Khaf-Herat railway line is one of Iran’s priority projects: it not only increases budget revenues and reduces transport costs between Iran and Afghanistan but also contributes to increased stability, security, job creation, and an improved overall economic situation in the region.

Chabahar Port can play an important role as a transit route connecting Central Asian countries and Afghanistan to the Indian Ocean, serving as a link between East and West, South and North. The Taliban's willingness to continue the Chabahar-Zahedan railway project, initiated in 2016 by India and the previous Afghan government, as well as the promise of $35 million in investments,indicate a desire to break free from dependence on Pakistan. However, in 2025, due to the “maximum pressure” policy pursued by US President Donald Trump against Iran, Chabahar Port came under sanctions. The future of the project remains uncertain. Overall, Iran-Afghanistan relations can be characterized as built on mutual economic and political interests, excluding ideological contradictions.

Spy Game

According to a number of Russian sources, the escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict in June 2025 revealed new facets of Iran-Afghanistan relations. One of the most alarming episodes was the exposure of a large agent network linked to Israeli intelligence "Mossad". It is reported that a group of Afghan citizens was detained in Tehran, allegedly recruited to carry out subversive activities on Iranian territory. Most of them turned out to be Pashtuns from Kandahar, which caused concern among Iranian authorities and cast doubt on the neutrality of the "Taliban" regime amid the Iran-Israel crisis.

Photo: Reporter

According to the same sources, Israeli intelligence may have used Afghan territory, particularly Herat province and Shindand city, as a transit route for delivering drones and explosives to Iran. If this information is confirmed, it could indicate a high level of Israeli intelligence penetration into Iranian territory and the possibility of using Afghan migrants in sabotage operations.

Such incidents could put an end to pragmatic cooperation between Iran and Afghanistan and lead to the destabilization of their foreign policy positions. A striking example is the mass deportation of Afghan refugees from Iran: from June 1 to 27, 2025, according to the International Organization for Migration, approximately 233,000 people were expelled. This led to overcrowding on trade routes and in economic centers of Afghanistan, as well as a noticeable decrease in business activity.

Photo: The Hindu

However, growing distrust and tension in Iran-Afghanistan relations create difficulties for both sides. Due to US sanctions, Iran cannot fully utilize its infrastructure and is forced to reorient itself towards the Trans-Afghan Corridor. For Afghanistan, Iranian logistics are of strategic importance, both in terms of oil and gas supply and in the prospect of becoming a key transit hub. During the 12-day war, restrictions on Iranian oil exports caused a sharp rise in fuel prices in Afghanistan.

In the current conditions, Afghanistan simultaneously faces new opportunities and serious challenges. On the one hand, by maintaining stability and neutrality, it can strengthen its role as a link in trans-regional trade, energy, and diplomacy. On the other hand, increasing tension between regional powers could draw Afghanistan into geopolitical rivalry and information wars, which threatens to undermine internal cohesion.

Khujabekov Ubaydullo. 

University of World Economy and Diplomacy /
 Institute for Advanced International Studies