Dragon’s dance with Pharaoh

What are the Egypt's ambitions in the diversification of its military partnerships? 

Strategic Hedging. During the ear of Great power competition, several middle power states have adopted hedging strategy to avoid taking sides on great power competition by engaging all sides simultaneously. While Egypt has been keeping traditional relations with the U.S, strengthening relations with China ensures that Egypt has multiple options in times of geopolitical uncertainty. Cario is fully aware of China's growing capability to gain more influence in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region in military and economic relations. This realization comes from a rapid expansion of Chinese influence through strategic partnerships, infrastructure projects, and military showcases. 

To be more specific, China has continually been demonstrating its growing power through joint military exercises and air shows and the signing of defense agreements with Middle Eastern states, such as Egypt, Algeria and the United Arab Emirates. As for the economic partnership, China is actively participating a number of new projects, including building industrial zones, power plants and the construction of Egypt's New Administrative Capital. For Egypt, all these developments bring one simple fact: in the near future, China is likely to be among the most influential states in this region so that setting good ties with China, will not be just one optional move, but a necessary option for Egypt in maintaining balance in the competition of great powers in this region.

Search for Unrestricted Military Growth. 

Furthermore, it seems like the Egyptian government is looking for of a reliable partner that does not use any excuses to prevent its growth militarily or economically. This is the characteristic that possesses the U. S. The United States have rejected Egypt’s military requests several times in order to maintain the preservation of Israel's Qualitative Military Edge. This policy ensures Israel's dominance by restricting other neighboring states in the region. For example, there are restrictions on the use of the AIM-120 AMRAAM, long-range target missile, for its F-16s which have been provided by the U.S Similarly, Egypt's interest in the MBDA Meteor long-range air-to-air missile for its Rafale jets has caused U.S. opposition, fearing that this missile could be against Israel's national security. By diversifying its partnerships, Egypt can reduce its reliance on U.S and build its defense capabilities with new partners without any restrictions. China can offer military equipment at significantly lower costs but the same quality and strength.  Furthermore, in 2024, President Biden has announced to cut military aid promised to Egypt claiming due to human rights abuses. Although this assistance has arrived later, this crated a doubt that sooner or later, the U.S may use any incident in order to cut its yearly aid. Therefore, there is a necessity for Egypt to seek outside partnerships that will honor the nation’s sovereignty and ambition for the development. 

China – Egypt military cooperation

As a result of such restrictions on purchasing military equipment from the West, Egypt has left no option but look for new partners to modernize its military force to become regional power. China can be top option among potential partners because relations with China imposes fewer political conditions and restrictions. Therefore, China and Egypt have already established their military cooperation in several areas, such as in fighter jets, defense, cybersecurity and aerospace technology. China’s Global Security Initiative, a strategic framework announced by the leader of China, is making any military offers more appealing. This project promotes a new security model based on mutual respect, non-interference, and win-win cooperation. This project is already challenging U.S. and NATO’s security norms and approach. It also allows China to fight against U.S. and its with non-violence methods. 

To be more specific, by offering high quality and advanced technologies at relatively cheaper costs, China is pushing away Egypt’s traditional allies, the U.S. and some other European countries from this region. American jets, specifically Mighty F-16 Fighter, have already lost to Chinese J-10C jets in terms  of cost and technology advancements offered.  Recently, Egypt has had negotiations with Benji to purchase Chinese J-10C fighter jets. This deal was signed on August 19, 2024, obviously it shows a significant shift in its military strategy and reflects a new and broader geopolitical realignment in the Middle East. The new jets significantly differ from jets provided by U.S in different key areas. First of all, J-10C is a fourth-generation fighter jet that promises advanced capabilities at a lower cost compared to Western alternatives. 

Specifically, this jet is estimated at around $40-50 million, compared to the F-16’s (A jet that U.S has started to deliver Israel) cost of approximately $65-70 million for the latest variants (F-16V). Secondly, it has an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar and advanced electronic warfare systems, which can equally compete with other modern air jets from all over the world.  Besides, the jet is powered by a Russian Lyulka-Saturn AL-31FN turbofan engine, which enables to reach a maximum speed of 2,200 km/h and a range of 3,200 km. It is also equipped with the PL-10 missile, a short-range air-to-air missile developed by China. It is called with another name the “Thunderbolt-10”, it features an advanced infrared (IIR) targeting system. It can engage from any angle thanks to this mechanism, which enables it to recognize targets based on their shape. 

There have been also several negotiations with China in the area of Air defense. For example, according to "Tactical Report" on January 2022, China is discussing with Egypt to deliver unrevealed number of Wing Loong I-D Unmanned Aerial Vehicles that will be delivered to the Egyptian Air Force. A recent official broadcast on Egypt’s 45th Air Force Day on October 14, new information was published on the ministry’s official social media pages, “The Egyptian military has been boosted with the latest global armament systems, including the multirole Rafale aircraft, F-16 fighter jets, Boeing AH-64 Apache helicopters and China’s Wing Loong armed aircraft” meaning that Chinese jets are already in the same line with American fighter jets. 

Potential Consequences of Egypt’s Move from the West to East

Firstly considering challenges coming with this move, first and foremost, Egypt is likely to experience economic difficulties once it starts serios relations with China that undermines interest of Israel and the United Sates. Currently, Egypt has duty-free access to U.S market for eligible products, that are manufactured within designated Qualifying Industrial Zones and include a minimum of 10.5% Israeli input, adhering to specific rules of origin. The U.S. Congress created the QIZ framework in 1996 under the U.S.-Israel Free Trade Agreement and it has been instrumental in boosting Egypt's textile and apparel industry. This sector, one of the country's oldest and largest ones, because it employs approximately 1 million workers and accounts for nearly 30% of Egypt's manufactured exports. If Egypt’s new decisions to diversify its military capacity with Chinese equipment impacts relations with the U.S or Israel, this will bring economic challenges for Cario. However, by considering interests of all great powers in this region despite being difficult, Egypt can keep diversifying its military forces. 

While world order is changing and new super powers are emerging, Egypt’s military diversification allows it to lessen its reliance on U.S. military supply. Geopolitical uncertainty in MENA region has also left no way but to consider multiple options for Middle  Powers to cooperate in order to equally compete with its counterparts. Therefore, Egypt’s newly establishing alliance with China gives broader and even more affordable equipment to modernize and advance its military capacity. 

There are several reasons and motives for Egypt to shift towards the East. Strategic hedging, the pursuit of unrestricted military growth and the search for alternative defense partnerships are the most significant factors for this bold move. This change not only enhances Egypt’s geopolitical role but also signals a broader re-ordering in the MENA region. However, it is also important to consider potential challenges. The military and economic ties between Egypt and the United States mean that any significant steps to build military alliance with China may bring considerable economic risks. Especially, Cario is likely to risk opportunities like U.S. military aid and trade agreements, such as the QIZ framework that plays a vital role in Egypt’s economy, if relations with China are considered a negative message by Washington.  

In order to mitigate these risks, Cairo must control its diversification strategy carefully. This strategy should ensure that its growing ties with China do not come at the cost of its existing partnership. Whether this approach will bring long-term benefits or cause unintended consequences still remains uncertain, but what is clear is that Egypt’s dance with the dragon,  China, is reshaping its geopolitical trajectory. 

Jasur Ravshanov